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These are common misunderstandings that arise in everyday reasoning about probabilities, many of which have been studied in great detail. Many people lose money while gambling due to their erroneous belief in this fallacy. Although the gambler's fallacy can apply to any form of gambling, it is easiest to illustrate by considering coin-tossing; its rebuttal can be summarised with the phrase "the coin doesn't have a memory". Casino games generally provide a predictable long-term advantage to the casino, or "house", while offering the player the possibility of a large short-term payout. Casino games often include an illusion of control, in which the player must make choices. However, in most cases it is not mathematically possible for a player to eliminate his or her inherent long-term disadvantage (the house advantage) in a casino game. The gambler's fallacy can be illustrated by considering the repeated toss of a coin. With a fair coin the chances of getting heads are exactly 0.5 (a half). The chances of it coming up heads twice in a row are 0.5?0.5=0.25 (a quarter). The probability of three heads in a row is 0.5?0.5×0.5= 0.125 (an eighth) and so on. For example, the official house advantage for a casino game might be 1%, and thus the expected value of return for the gambler is 99%. However, this math would only be true if the gambler never used the results of a winning bet again. Thus after gambling 100 dollars the idealized average gambler would be left with 99 dollars, but, if he continued to bet using his 99 dollars in winnings, he would again lose 1% on average and his expected value would go down to 98.01 dollars. This downward spiral continues until the gambler's expected value approaches zero: gambler's ruin. There are few things that are so unpardonably neglected in our country as poker... Why, I have known clergymen, good men, kindhearted, liberal, sincere, and all that, who did not know the meaning of a 'flush'. It is enough to make one ashamed of one's species. - Mark Twain Casino games Rs = suRrender if allowed, otherwise Stand VegasPlays offers run-in-browser Flash games, but their payouts aren't audited. Play here only if you're playing for fun, not for real money. Go to Instant Play >> Practice Mode. You don't have to sign up for an account or log in, even though it looks like you do. Works only with Internet Explorer, not Safari. The right to deal each hand typically rotates among the players and is marked by a token called a "buck" or "button". In a casino a house dealer handles the cards for each hand, but a button (typically a white plastic disk) is rotated among the players to indicate a notional dealer to determine the order of betting. [edit] The banker has now to decide whether he himself will draw a card, being guided in his decision partly by the cards he already holds, partly by the card (if any) drawn by the punter, and partly by what he may know or guess of the latter's mode of play. If he has hesitated over his decision, the banker may be pretty certain (unless such hesitation was an intentional blind) that his original point was five, and as the third card (if any) is exposed, his present point becomes equally a matter of certainty. The banker, having drawn or not drawn, as he may elect, exposes his cards, and receives or pays as the case may be. Ties neither win nor lose, but the stakes remain for the next hand. The combination of above ensures that the casino will in the vast majority of cases come out ahead in the long run. For an illustration, see this Gambler's Ruin simulation: [1]
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